The victory of Benjamin Netanyahu in the Israeli elections and an expected fourth term as the nation’s longest standing Prime Minister poses new challenges for the Israeli state, its citizens and the Palestinians. The gravity of Likud maintaining the mantle of political power, surrounded by the Middle East’s current revolutionary shifts, is significant particularly in regards to their fractured, if not non-existent, dialogue with the Palestinians in the occupied territories.
The formation of a new coalition including ultra-Orthodox, ultra-nationalist and right wing parties in the closing days and hours of elections demonstrated Netanyahu’s capabilities as a domestic politician in ferociously pushing for victory. However the cost was stark for the Palestinians as Netanyahu (dubbed ‘the hostile one’ by the Clinton Administration in the 1990s) declared dramatically that “If I am elected, there will be no Palestinian state,” as he made his hard-right shift. on the final day as Likud lagged in the opinion polls behind Labor’s Isaac Herzog.
Under severe pressure over the real possibility that he will lose the March 17th elections Netanyahu made a powerful appeal to his far right wing electorate by underlining that he will not impede Israeli settlers who intended to build more settlements in East Jerusalem. Bibi’s gambit paid off as Labor’s support crumbled in the late hours of March 17th after an a-typical last minute exchange of unpleasant remarks between various Israeli parties.
After the violent Gaza War, the expansion of settlements into the occupied territories, posturing against the Obama Administration, and harsh rhetoric in an inflammatory speech in Congress against Iran it appeared Netanyahu had done all in his power to isolate himself and Israel in international opinion.
However Netanyahu’s heavy lean on security and presenting himself as Israel’s strong man served Likud’s interests by appealing to security hawks and those who place emphasis on Israel’s defence despite the desperate last minute hustling of the far-right parties. Whether or not it left international commentators outraged does not matter to Bibi so long as his strategy paid off in the short-term. As Jeremy Bowen argues in his most recent article ‘most Israelis do not share the obsession that foreign politicians, and reporters, have with the chances of peace with the Palestinians….The record of failure has made them…cynical.’ Even those who desire the re-ignition of the peace process will have been left somewhat cynical by the result of the 2015 election.
The short-term strategies adopted by Likud to secure victory will have a significant impact upon the dynamics of the toxic relationship between the Palestinians and the Israelis. In short, Likud’s victory over Zionist Union will only deepen the troubles in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu did not secure a majority win and his alliance with ultra-nationalist groups and ultra-religious parties will exacerbate the problems associated with settlement construction in the West Bank, which runs parallel with issue of the Jewish state bill, and all but ignores the core issues of the conflict between the Palestinians and Israelis; namely East Jerusalem, the burgeoning refugee population, and right of return.
With regards to settlements “To transfer its own population into an occupied territory is prohibited because it is an obstacle to the exercise of the right to self-determination,” is a war crime that falls under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Netanyahu’s appeasement of Jewish Home and other detrimental elements towards the peace process will only lead to the the deepening of the settlement crisis at a key stage of both the conflict and in the context of regional instability.
While Israel is relatively stable and the Palestinians remain relatively quiet at this moment, it would be foolish to ignore the simmering anger in the occupied territories towards the government that will form under the new Prime Minister. This anger was clear to see in the bouts of violence that have been committed by both Israeli Arabs and Palestinians in the West Bank since June 2014, the most dramatic of which occurred at a synagogue in Har Nof settlement, Jerusalem, where two Palestinians shot and hacked to death seven civilians and a policeman.
The riots, random stabbings of settlers and attempted hit and runs in East Jerusalem, which began after right-wing extremists murdered sixteen year old Mohammed Abu Khdair in July 2014, sparked what many called ‘the silent intifada.’ According to Dr. Ahron Bregman at King’s College London, an expert in the Israel-Palestine conflict and author of Cursed Victory: A History of Israel and the Occupied Territories believes that the summer of blood marked the beginning of a ‘Third Intifada’.
Similarly the incarceration of millions of people in a tiny strip of land, namely the Gaza Strip, will inevitably spillover as demographics and pressures brought about by population growth will add to the already combustible mixture of future conflict.
The disenfranchised Israeli Arabs in the West Bank and Palestinians suffering from stark socio-economic inequalities cannot remain quiet, even in the shadow of Israel’s security apparatus. Israel risk both becoming an apartheid state, ruling as a minority over millions of underrepresented citizens and Palestinian refugees and risk creating a new Mogadishu on their doorstep in the Gaza Strip. The Palestinians have numerous issues to resolve in terms of factional divisions and have used appalling and unnecessary spectacular violence in the past to illustrate their frustrations as seen by the use of suicide bombers during the second intifada. However while Hamas is inevitably part of this problem, Israel will invite condemnation from the international community particularly if they repeat their strategy of reducing areas of the Gaza Strip (as they did in 2014) to the equivalent of Guernica during the Spanish Civil War and humiliating the Palestinians.
The elections will mean that the status quo will not change; the Palestinians will not be appeased and the one of the most brutal occupations in modern history will continue under the jurisdiction of Likud. Sweeping the idea of a Palestinian state under the carpet will not change the fact that an uprising is approaching. Maintaining the status quo will be extremely difficult when status quos are changing all over the Middle East.
Netanyahu is not there by mistake, he reflects the perceptions of many within Israeli society. The 2015 election was about standards of living, the price of food, economics: not the peace process which is marginalised and effectively a ‘frozen’ peace settlement. The left cannot to do things right now and arguably a victory for the left may have removed pressure on Israel to deal with the Palestinian question and also its nationalists and religious zealots who envisage absorbing the occupied territories for themselves.
International pressure on both the Israelis and Palestinians is more likely to grow in the future with the Likud party and the inflammatory Netanyahu in power, the latter of whom will take future actions that will inevitably invite external condemnation and pressure. Whether or not this pressure is real or words ring hollow is a matter of debate. This pressure will occur when conflict reignites between the Israeli and Palestinians and bring the necessary pressure on both parties to return to the table when the time is ripe for change.